ML Analysis — PRESBYTERIAN ST. LUKES MEDICAL CENT
CCN 060014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health21/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 27.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.2%, 33.4%]. P74 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2250937.258 | +0.0938 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.058 | +0.0413 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.424 | -0.0405 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.660 | +0.0299 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1707329.536 | +0.0277 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
48.2%
Distress Risk
$13.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
29.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P78. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.424 | +0.334 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.758 | -0.217 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.128 | -0.107 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2250937.258 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.123 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 287.000 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.2M
Current margin: 27.6%
Projected margin: 29.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.128 | 0.266 | 13.7% | $10.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.453 | 0.642 | 18.9% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |