ML Analysis — CENTURA ST. MARY CORWIN HOSPITAL
CCN 060012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.9%, 21.7%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3249561.262 | -0.1962 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2900265.405 | +0.1844 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.086 | +0.0332 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.163 | -0.0231 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1481916.433 | +0.0202 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
48.5%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P45. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.245 | +0.156 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.163 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2900265.405 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.511 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -12.0%
Projected margin: -6.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.163 | 0.520 | 35.7% | $5.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.511 | 0.682 | 17.1% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.531 | 0.546 | 1.5% | $230K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P65 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |