ML Analysis — PLATTE VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 060004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2284406.337 | -0.0773 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2033523.449 | +0.0634 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.341 | -0.0305 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.154 | +0.0138 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 89.000 | +0.0093 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
55.2%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-9.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P6. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.341 | +0.252 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.436 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.147 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.299 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2033523.449 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 89.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -12.3%
Projected margin: -9.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.513 | 0.656 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.436 | 0.757 | 32.1% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.299 | 0.379 | 7.9% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |