ML Analysis — NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 060001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.9%, 19.7%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid % | 0.376 | -0.0348 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.308 | +0.0217 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.129 | +0.0207 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1802306.663 | -0.0179 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 202.000 | -0.0083 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
54.8%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P1. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH SUBURBAN MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 115 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.376 | +0.287 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.555 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.313 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.211 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 202.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1593370.485 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: -13.1%
Projected margin: -11.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 26
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.413 | 0.632 | 21.9% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.555 | 0.722 | 16.7% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |