ML Analysis — TELECARE HERITAGE PHF
CCN 054146 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.6%, 14.0%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 461759.000 | -0.1560 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.712 | -0.1468 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 480152.231 | +0.1450 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.719 | +0.0393 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.258 | -0.0259 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-4.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.718 | -0.179 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.719 | +0.156 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 461759.000 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 26.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -4.0%
Projected margin: -4.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |