ML Analysis — NEWPORT BAY HOSPITAL
CCN 054135 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.6%, 30.0%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 296186.917 | -0.1791 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 301668.500 | +0.1670 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.860 | +0.0551 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.576 | +0.0291 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.112 | +0.0256 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 53%Turnaround possible (53%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$8.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
75.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.670 | -0.134 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.869 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.860 | +0.219 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 296186.917 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.2M
Current margin: -1.8%
Projected margin: 75.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.131 | 0.660 | 52.9% | $7.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.670 | 0.712 | 4.2% | $277K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |