ML Analysis — SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MENTAL HEALTH
CCN 054125 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.8%, 11.8%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 380799.938 | -0.1673 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 689166.062 | +0.1193 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.373 | -0.0492 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.372 | -0.0343 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
52.9%
Distress Risk
$872K
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-35.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P74. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.372 | +0.283 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.801 | -0.256 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.626 | +0.115 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 380799.938 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.032 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $872K
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -35.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.595 | 0.653 | 5.8% | $864K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.626 | 0.637 | 1.1% | $8K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |