ML Analysis — CHILDRENS HOSP & RES CNTR OAKLAND
CCN 053301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.5%, 29.1%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4438139.187 | +0.3991 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4751151.935 | -0.3811 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3074086.343 | +0.0730 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.451 | -0.0438 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.043 | +0.0155 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 51%Turnaround possible (51%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
48.8%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P68. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.451 | +0.362 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4438139.187 | -0.169 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.693 | -0.155 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.355 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 155.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -7.0%
Projected margin: -6.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 200
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.547 | 0.753 | 20.6% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.693 | 0.727 | 3.5% | $229K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |