ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL WESTMINSTER
CCN 052035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.3%, 23.3%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 598822.615 | -0.1369 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 644224.156 | +0.1248 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.075 | +0.0364 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.141 | -0.0255 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.772 | +0.0140 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.2%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-1.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P72. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.772 | -0.229 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.141 | -0.101 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 598822.615 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.452 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 109.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -7.6%
Projected margin: -1.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 178
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.532 | 0.734 | 20.2% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.141 | 0.306 | 16.4% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |