ML Analysis — COALINGA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 051338 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-22.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-50.3%, 6.3%]. P19 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1195294.046 | -0.0536 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.340 | -0.0304 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 22.000 | +0.0198 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1800919.727 | -0.0177 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 18%Low turnaround probability (18%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.7%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-34.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P80. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.340 | +0.251 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.295 | +0.214 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.052 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1195294.045 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.356 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -34.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.295 | 0.678 | 38.4% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.356 | 0.623 | 26.6% | $819K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.608 | 0.659 | 5.1% | $761K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |