ML Analysis — SANTA YNEZ VALLEY COTTAGE HOSPITAL
CCN 051331 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2172122.273 | +0.0828 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2145686.727 | -0.0602 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.398 | -0.0459 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.077 | -0.0255 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 167169.560 | -0.0234 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.1%
Distress Risk
$9.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P52. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.077 | +0.416 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.654 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2172122.273 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 11.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.383 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.5M
Current margin: 1.2%
Projected margin: 40.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.327 | 0.637 | 31.0% | $4.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.077 | 0.631 | 55.4% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.383 | 0.800 | 41.7% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |