ML Analysis — TRINITY HOSPITAL
CCN 051315 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 978844.800 | -0.0838 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 999407.440 | +0.0810 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.751 | +0.0428 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.2%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
32.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P25. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.326 | +0.185 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.751 | +0.170 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.751 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 978844.800 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: -2.1%
Projected margin: 32.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 71
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.248 | 0.653 | 40.5% | $6.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.326 | 0.687 | 36.1% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |