ML Analysis — CATALINA ISLAND MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 051307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
34
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -26.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.5%, 13.1%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2267279.625 | -0.0752 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.338 | -0.0301 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1790546.750 | +0.0295 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
65.6%
Distress Risk
$13.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
67.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P99. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.199 | +0.303 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.338 | +0.249 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.578 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.662 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1790546.750 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.4M
Current margin: -26.6%
Projected margin: 67.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.000 | 0.611 | 61.1% | $9.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.199 | 0.769 | 57.0% | $3.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.578 | 0.880 | 30.2% | $506K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |