ML Analysis — FOOTHILL REG MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050780 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.4%, 8.2%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 798742.459 | -0.1090 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.103 | +0.0283 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 256212.687 | -0.0205 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.209 | -0.0178 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.192 | -0.0125 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.8%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-41.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P56. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.321 | +0.190 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.192 | +0.103 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.210 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 798742.459 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 111.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.315 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -41.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 179
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.492 | 0.733 | 24.1% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.321 | 0.727 | 40.6% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.210 | 0.306 | 9.6% | $999K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.7% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |