ML Analysis — SHASTA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050764 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.0%, 19.6%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 792312.649 | -0.1099 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 827614.010 | +0.1022 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.079 | +0.0354 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.323 | +0.0220 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 252332.916 | -0.0206 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$9.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P46. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.318 | +0.192 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.188 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 792312.649 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.054 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.528 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 205.000 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.5M
Current margin: -4.5%
Projected margin: 1.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 218
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.418 | 0.739 | 32.0% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.318 | 0.735 | 41.7% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.188 | 0.292 | 10.4% | $2.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P42 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |