ML Analysis — MISSION COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 050704 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.6%, 21.0%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1093974.917 | -0.0677 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1222442.717 | +0.0536 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.389 | -0.0363 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.080 | +0.0348 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.853 | +0.0186 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.8%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P12. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.853 | -0.304 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.389 | +0.300 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.213 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1093974.917 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.233 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 145.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: -7.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 201
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.377 | 0.750 | 37.2% | $5.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.213 | 0.292 | 8.0% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |