ML Analysis — MENIFEE VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050684 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 555755.964 | -0.1429 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 574774.488 | +0.1333 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.469 | -0.0460 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.101 | +0.0289 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 262597.412 | -0.0203 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.8%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
11.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P2. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.469 | +0.380 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 555755.964 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.235 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.473 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.102 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 84.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -3.4%
Projected margin: 11.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 158
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.429 | 0.723 | 29.4% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.473 | 0.715 | 24.3% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.235 | 0.368 | 13.3% | $726K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |