ML Analysis — KFH - WOODLAND HILLS
CCN 050677 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.4%, 19.2%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 5.613 | +0.0288 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 274.000 | -0.0195 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.955 | +0.0151 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.253 | -0.0147 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1478352.336 | -0.0141 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Log(Beds).
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.4%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P81. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.396 | +0.120 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.264 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 274.000 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1478352.336 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -11.3%
Projected margin: -10.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 188
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.396 | 0.758 | 36.2% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.264 | 0.288 | 2.4% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |