ML Analysis — CHINO VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050586 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.5%, 21.1%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 775936.464 | +0.1086 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 882515.670 | -0.0973 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 368096.250 | -0.0168 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.271 | -0.0110 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.718 | +0.0080 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.7%
Distress Risk
$3.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
15.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P33. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.417 | +0.100 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.271 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 882515.670 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.108 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.222 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 112.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.4M
Current margin: 12.1%
Projected margin: 15.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 180
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.417 | 0.725 | 30.8% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.670 | 0.733 | 6.3% | $939K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.271 | 0.306 | 3.5% | $403K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |