ML Analysis — PORTERVILLE DEVELOPMENTAL CENTER
CCN 050546 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.9%, 17.7%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 11385558.412 | +1.3689 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 12065840.353 | -1.2822 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.857 | -0.0929 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
70.6%
Distress Risk
$13.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
1.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P99. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.857 | +0.768 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 11385558.412 | -0.579 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.005 | +0.483 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.143 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 17.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.9M
Current margin: -6.0%
Projected margin: 1.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.000 | 0.653 | 65.3% | $9.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.005 | 0.630 | 62.6% | $4.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |