ML Analysis — PACIFICA HOSPITAL OF THE VALLEY
CCN 050378 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.3%, 17.3%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 790471.684 | -0.1101 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 821077.556 | +0.1030 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.636 | -0.0661 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.573 | +0.0229 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 402359.776 | -0.0156 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
65.2%
Distress Risk
$8.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P51. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.636 | +0.546 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.573 | +0.091 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 790471.684 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.097 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.509 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 133.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.6M
Current margin: -3.9%
Projected margin: 4.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 192
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.267 | 0.745 | 47.8% | $7.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.509 | 0.722 | 21.3% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |