ML Analysis — ADVENTIST HEALTH GLENDALE
CCN 050239 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.1%, 21.5%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.085 | +0.0335 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.778 | +0.0326 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 323.000 | -0.0272 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.156 | -0.0238 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1481271.489 | -0.0137 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.6%
Distress Risk
$11.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P49. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.156 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.595 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.054 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 323.000 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.402 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1481271.489 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.6M
Current margin: -14.7%
Projected margin: -12.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 166
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.156 | 0.289 | 13.2% | $7.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.543 | 0.755 | 21.1% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.595 | 0.753 | 15.8% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P30 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |