ML Analysis — WATSONVILLE COMMUNITY HOSPTIAL
CCN 050194 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.7%, 17.9%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 434744.057 | -0.1598 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 446308.566 | +0.1492 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.067 | +0.0388 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.141 | -0.0255 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 146573.159 | -0.0241 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.1%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
13.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P55. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.337 | +0.175 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.141 | -0.101 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 434744.057 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.135 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.393 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 106.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: -2.7%
Projected margin: 13.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 171
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.472 | 0.728 | 25.5% | $3.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.337 | 0.727 | 39.0% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.141 | 0.306 | 16.4% | $887K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |