ML Analysis — PETALUMA VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 050136 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -24.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.094 | +0.0309 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.148 | -0.0247 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1429163.465 | -0.0210 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1772863.690 | -0.0142 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 58.000 | +0.0142 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-17.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.413 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.366 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.149 | -0.098 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1429163.466 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -24.1%
Projected margin: -17.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.149 | 0.386 | 23.8% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.413 | 0.713 | 30.0% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.634 | 0.721 | 8.7% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |