ML Analysis — SO CALIF HOSPITAL AT HOLLYWOOD
CCN 050135 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.5%, 14.1%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 652155.088 | -0.1294 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 757077.319 | +0.1109 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 545.000 | -0.0618 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.301 | +0.0448 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.111 | +0.0261 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.2%
Distress Risk
$8.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-13.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P79. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.300 | +0.211 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 652155.088 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 545.000 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.261 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.510 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.276 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.2M
Current margin: -16.1%
Projected margin: -13.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 96
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.424 | 0.749 | 32.5% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.510 | 0.783 | 27.3% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.261 | 0.297 | 3.5% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |