ML Analysis — SHARP MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 050100 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.7%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 832.000 | -0.1066 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.724 | +0.0546 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.204 | -0.0184 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1517662.840 | +0.0172 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.153 | +0.0140 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
48.9%
Distress Risk
$18.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P42. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds | 832.000 | +0.091 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.204 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.150 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.539 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.101 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1631747.542 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $18.1M
Current margin: 7.0%
Projected margin: 8.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 28
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.204 | 0.304 | 9.9% | $15.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.539 | 0.887 | 34.8% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.749 | 0.752 | 0.3% | $40K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |