ML Analysis — ARKANSAS CHILDRENS NORTHWEST
CCN 043301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.5%, 34.1%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4733324.083 | +0.4403 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4394630.292 | -0.3372 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3232276.788 | +0.0783 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.319 | -0.0337 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.362 | -0.0330 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.5%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P71. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.362 | +0.273 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4733324.083 | -0.186 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.683 | -0.146 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.502 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 7.2%
Projected margin: 7.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |