ML Analysis — ASHLEY COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 041323 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.8%, 15.8%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1349004.240 | -0.0321 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.466 | +0.0110 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.8%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-13.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P45. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.446 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.466 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.529 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1349004.240 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.081 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -23.0%
Projected margin: -13.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.390 | 0.549 | 15.9% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.446 | 0.564 | 11.8% | $778K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.466 | 0.489 | 2.2% | $88K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |