ML Analysis — THE GUIDANCE CENTER INC.
CCN 034023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.5%, 26.1%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.510 | -0.0889 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.740 | +0.0413 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.389 | -0.0363 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
57.5%
Distress Risk
$2.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
19.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P15. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.389 | +0.300 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.740 | -0.199 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.100 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1538930.625 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.6M
Current margin: 8.8%
Projected margin: 19.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.510 | 0.681 | 17.1% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |