ML Analysis — ARIZONA STATE HOSPITAL
CCN 034021 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
16
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 0.000 | -0.2205 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 514367.415 | +0.1408 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.000 | -0.0413 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 0.000 | -0.0290 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$727K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
nan%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.671 | -0.135 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 159.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $727K
Current margin: nan%
Projected margin: nan%
Grade: D
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.671 | 0.781 | 11.0% | $727K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |