ML Analysis — SSH - ARIZONA INC.
CCN 032005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.2%, 25.4%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 579106.594 | -0.1396 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 534992.375 | +0.1382 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.097 | +0.0299 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.133 | -0.0264 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.7%
Distress Risk
$844K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P58. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.751 | -0.209 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.133 | -0.105 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.023 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 579106.594 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 32.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.243 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $844K
Current margin: 7.6%
Projected margin: 12.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.133 | 0.522 | 38.9% | $844K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P51 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |