ML Analysis — WINSLOW MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 031311 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.2%, 18.4%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid % | 0.399 | -0.0376 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.093 | +0.0311 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.5%
Distress Risk
$8.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
13.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P15. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.399 | +0.310 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.349 | +0.163 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.291 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.280 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1604269.760 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.3M
Current margin: -6.8%
Projected margin: 13.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.321 | 0.661 | 34.0% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.349 | 0.684 | 33.5% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.291 | 0.494 | 20.3% | $954K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |