ML Analysis — WICKENBURG COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 031300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -24.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.3%, 16.3%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2563001.526 | -0.1116 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2064576.316 | +0.0677 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.944 | -0.0332 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 19.000 | +0.0202 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.6%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-8.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P58. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.191 | +0.310 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.294 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2064576.316 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.487 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 19.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -24.1%
Projected margin: -8.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 31
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.512 | 0.691 | 17.9% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.191 | 0.543 | 35.1% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.294 | 0.507 | 21.3% | $976K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |