ML Analysis — MARICOPA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 030152 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 928301.889 | +0.0898 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 992685.111 | -0.0819 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.197 | -0.0506 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.039 | +0.0467 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.070 | -0.0334 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.4%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
45.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P79. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.093 | +0.401 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.284 | +0.195 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.071 | -0.133 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 992685.111 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.160 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 9.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: 6.5%
Projected margin: 45.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 483
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.093 | 0.441 | 34.9% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.071 | 0.721 | 65.0% | $679K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.556 | 0.591 | 3.5% | $526K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 37.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |