ML Analysis — BANNER IRONWOOD MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 030130 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1319738.000 | +0.0416 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1298040.449 | -0.0393 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.119 | +0.0237 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.269 | -0.0218 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.3%
Distress Risk
$8.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
5.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P18. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.269 | +0.180 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.595 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.228 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.208 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1298040.449 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 89.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.2M
Current margin: -1.7%
Projected margin: 5.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 55
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.523 | 0.791 | 26.7% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.228 | 0.469 | 24.2% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.595 | 0.742 | 14.6% | $967K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |