ML Analysis — BANNER ESTRELLA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 030115 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
69
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health23/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
72.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 79.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [44.3%, 100.9%]. P100 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5795694.779 | +0.5886 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 4200920.738 | +0.1104 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.476 | -0.0790 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1207068.145 | +0.0555 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
52.9%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
79.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P94. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.398 | +0.309 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 5795694.779 | -0.249 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.725 | -0.185 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.126 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 317.000 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: 79.2%
Projected margin: 79.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.476 | 0.704 | 22.8% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.725 | 0.782 | 5.8% | $380K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |