ML Analysis — BANNER THUNDERBIRD MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 030089 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1145534.529 | +0.0630 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 539.000 | -0.0609 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1251197.898 | -0.0458 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.290 | +0.0445 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.367 | -0.0337 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
52.9%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P81. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.367 | +0.278 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.647 | -0.113 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.233 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 539.000 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.139 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1251197.898 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: 8.4%
Projected margin: 9.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 19
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.233 | 0.269 | 3.6% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.493 | 0.597 | 10.4% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.647 | 0.810 | 16.3% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |