ML Analysis — BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER TUCSON
CCN 030064 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.0%, 24.6%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 533.000 | -0.0600 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1923348.882 | +0.0480 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.279 | +0.0442 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2011115.015 | -0.0436 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.406 | -0.0384 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Bed Count.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.6%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-4.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P87. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.406 | +0.317 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.812 | -0.266 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 533.000 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.280 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.143 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1923348.882 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -4.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 19
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.450 | 0.597 | 14.7% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |