ML Analysis — NORTH STAR HOSPITAL T18
CCN 024001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.9%, 14.7%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 195860.114 | -0.1931 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 207025.871 | +0.1786 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.716 | -0.0758 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.106 | +0.0275 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 87435.635 | -0.0261 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
66.9%
Distress Risk
$9.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
27.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P85. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.716 | +0.626 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 195860.114 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.446 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.383 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 140.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.2M
Current margin: -5.7%
Projected margin: 27.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 2081
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.277 | 0.757 | 48.0% | $7.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.446 | 0.749 | 30.2% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |