ML Analysis — NORTON SOUND REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 021308 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.1%, 21.5%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 10625283.944 | -1.1048 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 8260119.333 | +0.9326 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 5041564.464 | +0.1383 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.774 | +0.0455 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.460 | -0.0449 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.9%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-27.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P97. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 8260119.333 | -0.394 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.460 | +0.371 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.774 | +0.181 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.610 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.342 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -28.6%
Projected margin: -27.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.197 | 0.318 | 12.1% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P68 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |