ML Analysis — CORDOVA COMMUNITY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 021307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 942564.539 | -0.0889 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 994143.923 | +0.0817 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.724 | +0.0399 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.073 | +0.0371 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
69.0%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
38.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P83. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.176 | +0.324 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.381 | +0.292 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.724 | +0.158 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 942564.538 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.519 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: -5.5%
Projected margin: 38.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.100 | 0.331 | 23.1% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.176 | 0.456 | 28.0% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.724 | 0.760 | 3.6% | $52K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |