ML Analysis — PROV. KODIAK ISLAND MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 021306 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside16/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.0%, 21.6%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2481265.500 | +0.1259 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2497011.958 | -0.1035 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.562 | +0.0216 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.251 | -0.0196 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
60.5%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P88. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.239 | +0.265 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.251 | +0.162 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.562 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2481265.500 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.392 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -0.6%
Projected margin: 3.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.239 | 0.456 | 21.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.562 | 0.740 | 17.8% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |