ML Analysis — WRANGELL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 021305 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.697 | +0.0369 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1828741.875 | +0.0348 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.107 | +0.0272 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 8.000 | +0.0220 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.5%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
51.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P48. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.301 | +0.208 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.697 | +0.146 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.790 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1828741.875 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: 0.7%
Projected margin: 51.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 383
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.154 | 0.593 | 43.9% | $6.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.301 | 0.423 | 12.2% | $808K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.697 | 0.728 | 3.1% | $52K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |