ML Analysis — PROVIDENCE SEWARD MEDICAL & CARE CEN
CCN 021302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-18.6%, 38.0%]. P82 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4920839.500 | +0.4664 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4058524.667 | -0.2958 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.792 | -0.0600 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.661 | +0.0328 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.112 | +0.0259 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.7%
Distress Risk
$8.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
44.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P98. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.176 | +0.324 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4920839.500 | -0.197 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.661 | +0.130 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.174 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.657 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 6.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.0M
Current margin: 17.5%
Projected margin: 44.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.169 | 0.598 | 42.9% | $6.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.176 | 0.380 | 20.4% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.661 | 0.715 | 5.4% | $186K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |