ML Analysis — PROVIDENCE ALASKA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 020001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.3%, 27.3%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 401.000 | -0.0394 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.405 | -0.0382 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.994 | +0.0376 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1848341.541 | +0.0376 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.071 | +0.0375 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.7%
Distress Risk
$13.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P73. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.405 | +0.316 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.769 | -0.227 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.258 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 401.000 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1848341.541 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.319 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.3M
Current margin: 6.8%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 1166
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.276 | 0.753 | 47.7% | $7.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.258 | 0.327 | 6.9% | $6.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.769 | 0.792 | 2.3% | $152K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |