ML Analysis — USA CHILDRENS AND WOMENS HOSPITAL
CCN 013301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.2%, 14.4%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 919055.016 | -0.0922 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 921796.309 | +0.0906 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.754 | -0.0804 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.102 | +0.0287 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
63.1%
Distress Risk
$7.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P89. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.754 | +0.664 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.653 | -0.119 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 919055.016 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.417 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 249.000 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.0M
Current margin: -0.3%
Projected margin: 2.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 31
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.244 | 0.657 | 41.3% | $6.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.653 | 0.779 | 12.6% | $828K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |