ML Analysis — THE CHILDRENS HOSPITAL OF ALABAMA
CCN 013300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2391660.510 | +0.1134 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.481 | -0.0804 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 2253595.820 | -0.0735 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.861 | +0.0345 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1851518.410 | +0.0325 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$30K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.774 | -0.231 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.484 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2391660.510 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 351.000 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $30K
Current margin: 5.8%
Projected margin: 5.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 27
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.774 | 0.779 | 0.5% | $30K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |