ML Analysis — COOSA VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 010164 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.8%, 11.8%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 597957.943 | -0.1370 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 667764.459 | +0.1219 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.313 | -0.0271 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.111 | +0.0260 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.6%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-2.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P37. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.243 | +0.262 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.313 | +0.223 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.229 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 597957.943 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.202 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 122.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: -2.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.243 | 0.779 | 53.6% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.486 | 0.638 | 15.3% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.229 | 0.358 | 12.9% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |