ML Analysis — REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR OF CENTRAL AL
CCN 010150 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -29.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.9%, 11.7%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 498502.796 | -0.1509 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 644086.068 | +0.1248 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.074 | +0.0366 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.134 | -0.0264 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.4%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-14.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P14. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.195 | +0.307 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.134 | -0.105 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 498502.795 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.122 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 44.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.322 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -29.2%
Projected margin: -14.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.195 | 0.473 | 27.9% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.134 | 0.471 | 33.8% | $867K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.556 | 0.586 | 3.0% | $451K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |