ML Analysis — HILL HOSPITAL OF SUMTER COUNTY
CCN 010138 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-21.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -31.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-49.3%, 7.3%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 112055.636 | -0.2048 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 147481.152 | +0.1860 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.813 | -0.0876 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.050 | +0.0436 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 18%Low turnaround probability (18%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
75.1%
Distress Risk
$9.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
215.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P97. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Critical
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.813 | +0.723 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.198 | +0.303 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 112055.636 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.539 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.094 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 33.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.1M
Current margin: -31.6%
Projected margin: 215.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.093 | 0.586 | 49.3% | $7.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.198 | 0.464 | 26.5% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |